According to the World Bank's Global Findex Database (2021), approximately 1.4 billion adults worldwide remain unbanked, with no access to formal financial services. The majority of these individuals live in emerging markets across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Despite remarkable progress in mobile money adoption over the past decade, the infrastructure connecting these populations to digital financial services remains profoundly underdeveloped.
The title of this article is not hyperbole. When you examine the actual state of payment infrastructure in emerging markets - the API layers, the interoperability protocols, the developer tooling - what exists today represents perhaps one percent of what will ultimately be built. The opportunity is not just large; it is generational.
The Scale of the Opportunity
The GSMA's 2024 State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money documented $1.26 trillion in mobile money transactions processed globally in 2023. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for approximately 70% of that volume, with East Africa alone processing over $400 billion annually. These numbers have grown consistently at 20-25% year-over-year for the past five years.
$1.26 trillion in mobile money transactions were processed globally in 2023, with over 800 million registered accounts in sub-Saharan Africa alone. - GSMA State of the Industry Report 2024
Yet despite this scale, the infrastructure supporting these transactions is remarkably fragmented. Consider the facts:
- 300+ mobile money services operate across 95 countries, each with proprietary APIs, different authentication methods and distinct settlement protocols (GSMA, 2024).
- No single provider covers more than 15-20 markets with direct integrations. Most cover fewer than five.
- Cross-border mobile money transfers represent less than 4% of total mobile money transaction volume, despite remittances being a $100+ billion flow to sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 2024).
- Utility payment APIs - for services like electricity, water and internet - barely exist at scale. Most utilities in Africa still accept payments through fragmented, offline, or single-channel systems.
The Fragmentation Problem
To understand why payments in emerging markets are still at such an early stage, you need to understand the fragmentation landscape. In developed markets, a payment company might integrate with Visa, Mastercard and a few local schemes to achieve near-universal coverage. In emerging markets, achieving similar coverage requires navigating an entirely different landscape.
Country-by-Country Fragmentation
Take West Africa as an example. To cover the major mobile money networks across just five countries (Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Cameroon), a payment company needs direct or indirect integrations with:
| Country | Major Mobile Money Providers | Minimum Integrations Needed |
|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | OPay, PalmPay, Paga, MTN MoMo | 3-4 |
| Ghana | MTN MoMo, Vodafone Cash, AirtelTigo Money | 2-3 |
| Senegal | Orange Money, Wave, Free Money | 2-3 |
| Ivory Coast | Orange Money, MTN MoMo, Moov Money, Wave | 3-4 |
| Cameroon | MTN MoMo, Orange Money | 2 |
That is 12-16 separate integrations just to cover five countries in one region. Each integration involves different technical protocols (USSD callbacks, REST APIs, SOAP endpoints), different onboarding processes (which can take months), different compliance requirements and different settlement currencies.
The Utility Payment Layer
The fragmentation extends beyond mobile money into utility payments. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), approximately 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa lack access to electricity. Among those who do have access, payment systems vary enormously:
- Kenya: Kenya Power (KPLC) uses a prepaid token system deeply integrated with M-Pesa. Over 80% of electricity payments are made via mobile money.
- Nigeria: Multiple distribution companies (DisCos) operate regional monopolies, each with different payment platforms and meter types.
- Ghana: The Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) and Northern Electricity Distribution Company (NEDCo) use the STS prepaid standard but with different integration endpoints.
- The Gambia: A single utility (NAWEC) serves the entire country with legacy systems that require specialized integration approaches.
Why Traditional Infrastructure Fails Here
The developed-world model of payment infrastructure does not translate to emerging markets for several structural reasons.
Low Average Transaction Values
The average mobile money transaction in sub-Saharan Africa is approximately $45 (GSMA, 2024). Many airtime purchases are as low as $0.20-$0.50. This means infrastructure must be optimized for high volume and low value - the opposite of what traditional correspondent banking systems were built for.
Offline and Hybrid Environments
The ITU estimates that only 36% of individuals in sub-Saharan Africa used the internet in 2023. Payment infrastructure must work in environments with intermittent connectivity, USSD-based interfaces (no internet required) and agent networks for cash-in/cash-out operations. According to the GSMA, there were over 15 million registered mobile money agents globally in 2023, with the majority concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.
Regulatory Complexity
Each country maintains its own regulatory framework for payments. Nigeria's Central Bank regulates mobile money under its Payment System Management Department. Ghana's Payment Systems and Services Act established a different framework. Kenya's National Payment System Act provides yet another model. There is no pan-African payment regulation (though initiatives like PAPSS are working toward cross-border interoperability).
It takes an average of 5-7 separate provider integrations to achieve meaningful coverage in a single African country. Expanding to 10 countries can require 40-60+ distinct technical integrations. This is fundamentally different from developed markets.
The Unified API Opportunity
The fragmentation described above creates a clear market opportunity: a unified API layer that abstracts the complexity of individual provider integrations and presents developers with a single, consistent interface.
This is not a theoretical concept. We can look at what happened in other markets to understand the pattern:
- Stripe unified card payment acceptance across hundreds of banks and card networks in developed markets. Before Stripe, accepting card payments online required individual acquiring bank relationships.
- Plaid unified bank account connectivity across thousands of financial institutions in the US. Before Plaid, each bank integration was a separate engineering project.
- Twilio unified telecommunications APIs across carriers globally. Before Twilio, sending an SMS programmatically required direct carrier contracts.
The same abstraction pattern is needed for emerging market payments - but the technical challenges are greater because the underlying systems are more diverse, less standardized and less reliable.
What "Fully Built" Looks Like
If we project forward to what a mature emerging market payment infrastructure would look like, the scope becomes clear:
- Universal mobile money coverage: A single API call that can reach any mobile money wallet in any covered market, regardless of provider.
- Unified utility payments: One endpoint for electricity, water, airtime, data, TV and internet payments across dozens of countries, with real-time token delivery and balance verification.
- Cross-border settlement: Instant settlement in either local currency or stablecoins (USDC/USDT), eliminating the 2-5 day delays and 3-7% fees of traditional correspondent banking.
- Developer tooling: SDKs, webhooks, sandboxes and documentation at the level that developers in developed markets have come to expect from services like Stripe or Twilio.
Today, no single provider delivers all of this. The infrastructure that exists serves perhaps 1% of the total addressable market in terms of coverage, capability and developer experience. The remaining 99% represents one of the largest infrastructure build-out opportunities in fintech.
The Growth Trajectory
Multiple data points suggest this market is accelerating:
- Mobile money registered accounts grew from 300 million in 2017 to over 1.75 billion globally in 2023 (GSMA).
- Africa's fintech sector attracted over $2.4 billion in venture funding in 2022, though this declined in 2023 alongside global markets (Africa: The Big Deal).
- Smartphone penetration in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to reach 87% by 2030, up from approximately 51% in 2023 (GSMA Intelligence).
- The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is driving demand for cross-border payment infrastructure to support intra-African trade.
Conclusion
The thesis is straightforward: emerging market payment infrastructure is in its earliest stages. The demand is massive and growing - $1.26 trillion in mobile money transactions alone, plus utility payments, remittances and merchant commerce. But the supply-side infrastructure is fragmented, underdeveloped and serves only a fraction of potential use cases.
For companies building in this space, the timing is favorable. Mobile money adoption has reached critical mass in key markets. Smartphone penetration is accelerating. Regulators are (gradually) enabling interoperability. And stablecoins are providing new settlement rails that bypass traditional banking limitations.
The next decade will see the construction of the remaining 99% of emerging market payment infrastructure. The companies that build the unifying API layers - the ones that abstract fragmentation and present developers with simple, reliable, well-documented interfaces - will capture an outsized share of the value created.
Sources: World Bank Global Findex Database (2021), GSMA State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money (2024), International Energy Agency Africa Energy Outlook (2023), ITU Facts and Figures (2023), World Bank Migration and Remittances Data (2024).